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Q2(iii):
Which of the following experiments have equally likely outcomes? Explain. (iii) A trial is made to answer a true-false question. The answer is right or wrong.

Solution :

Given: A trial is conducted to answer a true-false question. The possible outcomes are that the answer is either 'right' or 'wrong'.

To Find: Determine whether the outcomes of this experiment are 'equally likely' and provide a logical explanation.

Definition: Outcomes of an experiment are said to be equally likely if each outcome has the same probability of occurring. In a sample space $S$, if $P(A) = P(B) = \dots = P(n)$, then the outcomes are equally likely.

Step 1: Identifying the Sample Space
Let the possible outcomes of the experiment be represented by the set $S$.
$S = \{ \text{Right}, \text{Wrong} \}$
The total number of possible outcomes is $n(S) = 2$.

Step 2: Analyzing the Nature of the Experiment
In a true-false question, the correctness of the answer depends on the knowledge or the choice of the person answering the question. Unlike a fair coin toss where the physical properties of the coin ensure a $50\%$ chance for heads or tails, the probability of answering a true-false question correctly is dependent on external factors:

  • If the person knows the subject matter, the probability of answering 'Right' is significantly higher than 'Wrong'.
  • If the person is guessing, the probability might be $0.5$ for each.
  • If the person is uninformed, the probability of answering 'Wrong' might be higher.

Step 3: Evaluating the Condition for Equally Likely Outcomes
For the outcomes to be equally likely, the probability of getting the answer 'Right' ($P(R)$) must equal the probability of getting the answer 'Wrong' ($P(W)$).
$P(R) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes for Right}}{\text{Total number of outcomes}}$
$P(W) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes for Wrong}}{\text{Total number of outcomes}}$

Since the probability of answering correctly is not inherently fixed at $0.5$ for every individual or every question (as it is not a random physical process like tossing a balanced die), we cannot assume $P(R) = P(W) = 0.5$.

Step 4: Conclusion
Because the likelihood of the answer being 'Right' or 'Wrong' depends on the knowledge of the person answering the question and is not determined by a uniform random process, the outcomes are not necessarily equally likely.

Final Answer: The outcomes are not equally likely because the probability of answering correctly depends on the knowledge of the person attempting the question, and it is not a random event with a fixed probability of $0.5$ for each outcome.


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