Stock Market Investing Updates

Banknifty took the support of Gann Degree Number 20400 zone, and we saw reversal towards Gann Number 21100 making top @ 21199 but closed below 21100, @ 21035.

Banknifty opened Big gap up @ 21636 and immediately hit our primary target of 21800 (Top @ 21807). It found strong resistance @ 21800 levels, a Gann Number, and reversed sharply making low @ 20911 almost 900 points down move from the top. It closed @ 21187. So it still holds 21100 levels. For the last two days, it was pure Gann Number Play from 20400-21100-21800 and back to 21100.

Gann Angles:

India VIX:

Banknifty opened mild Gap up but could not sustain and came down sharply to 21000 levels (20983). But again gave sharp upmove towards our first resistance 21450. So we got a good trade from 21100 to 21450. It faced strong resistance in the 21450-21550 zone.

F & O Data:

Trade Plan:

Banknifty moved in a fashion that was expected for Wednesday. The entire day was a premium eating show except for the last 1 hour, which gave sharp upmove. Banknifty closed exactly on Gann Number 21100.

The hourly chart shows Banknifty consolidated today around MAs and closing above MAs. But bearish crossover is still there. So banknifty may move within range (21800-20400). 

 

 

F & O Data: 

The spot to the future discount of 47 now changed to a premium of 19—no conclusion as very less OI addition.

 

Trade Plan:

As expected, today's expiry was a fiery one! Once Banknifty broke 21100, it achieved our target of 20700, making a low of 20525. Yesterday's RSI level of 60 and an inside bar was one of the clues for such a move possibility. Also, VIX always suggesting down bias as there is no fall in VIX with upmove and instead we see an increase in its value.

F & O Data:

India VIX:

Trade Plan:

After making Gap up opening and sharp upmove towards our target of 21300, Banknifty moved much higher to 21619 but reversed very sharply in last hour closing @ 20940. 

Banknifty crossed the first hurdle of 20400 and closed above it. 20400 is a significant number for Banknifty as it is a 3-digit Gann Degree Number for Banknifty.

Time Calculations: Based on Trading Days

Banknifty opened Gap up @19728 near Gann No 19700 and made a big move. Faced resistance in the zone of 20100 making top @ 20225 and consolidated. 

Futures Data 

The signal for Big Move Today:

The following chart shows various time cycles on Nifty.

What Happened?

• In 2019, Gann 90 year cycle completed. This cycle comes from 1839 depression followed by 1929 depression.
• In Feb-2020, 20-year cycle completed from Feb 2000 Top
• In Jan-2020, 144-month cycle completed from Top made in Jan-2008 before the 2008 financial crisis.
• In Dec-2019, 3-year cycle completed from Low made in Dec-2016 post-Demonetisation.

So we saw a big fall as major cycles came together.

What next for Nifty?

• In Oct-2020, 144-month cycle from Low made in Oct-2008 during the 2008 financial crisis, will complete
• In Nov-2020, 10-year cycle from Top made in Nov-2010 will complete
• In Dec-2020, 288-month cycle from Low made in Dec-1996 will complete
• In Feb-2020, 60-month cycle from Low made in Feb-2016 will complete
• In Feb-2020, 13-month cycle (it is observed Nifty makes Bottom from Top in 11-13 months) from Top made in Jan-2020 will complete
• In Sep-2021, 20-year cycle from Low made in Sep-2001 will complete
• In Dec-2021, 10-year cycle from Low made in Dec-2011 will complete.

So the probability of bottoms formation as per time cycles is Oct-Dec 2020, Feb 2020, and then Sep-Dec 2021 if the bear market continues for long.

Looking at the possible economic impact of the pandemic, the possibility of Oct-Dec low does not seems feasible; it may be a mid-term low. Only "TIME" will tell!

My Experience:

I was expecting a bottom in 2019 below or nearby Mar-2018 low, due to 90-year cycle completion. When the market started falling after the Corporate tax cut rally, I was almost sure that a low would form in 2019. But it did not happen, and the market went up. I was still bearish on the market and expecting fall. I was expecting a sharp fall but never thought it would be of such magnitude. 

So 90-year cycle impact I knew from the past, but experienced the first time and will not be alive to experience again. So knowing something and experiencing something is a quite different phenomenon altogether. That's Big learning!