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Lesson Posted on 12 Jun Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Investment/Technical Analysis Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Commodities Trading +2 Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Derivatives Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Intraday Trading less

BankNifty Update for Jun-8, 2020

Ninad Deshmukh

I am an entrepreneur who started 2 ventures in the Food sector. Right now I am a Full-time Stock Trader...

Banknifty took the support of Gann Degree Number 20400 zone, and we saw reversal towards Gann Number 21100 making top @ 21199 but closed below 21100, @ 21035. If Banknifty sustains above 21100, then we can see a move towards 21500/21800 and higher levels of 22500. Breaking below 20400, it may go... read more

Banknifty took the support of Gann Degree Number 20400 zone, and we saw reversal towards Gann Number 21100 making top @ 21199 but closed below 21100, @ 21035.

 
If Banknifty sustains above 21100, then we can see a move towards 21500/21800 and higher levels of 22500. Breaking below 20400, it may go down to 19700/19000 levels.
 
 
On the Hourly chart, Banknifty took support @30-EMA that coincided with the 20400 zones. So on hourly chart supports are @20400 followed by 20100. Resistance @ 21450.
 
On Daily Gann Box, Banknifty took resistance of angle. So for upmove, it needs to break the angle level. So it needs to break 21100. The next resistance is @ 21220. So 21100-21220 may act as strong resistance.
 
 
Banknifty reversed from Weekly Angle.
 
 
On Daily Vix Gann Box, Time Factor suggests a directional move (reversal/continuation). Also, it formed Double Bottom.
 
To summarise, above 21100 targets are 21220/21450/ 21800. Below 21000 marks are 20400/20100/19700.
 
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Lesson Posted on 12 Jun Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Investment/Technical Analysis Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Commodities Trading +2 Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Derivatives Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Intraday Trading less

BankNifty Update for Jun-9, 2020

Ninad Deshmukh

I am an entrepreneur who started 2 ventures in the Food sector. Right now I am a Full-time Stock Trader...

Banknifty opened Big gap up @ 21636 and immediately hit our primary target of 21800 (Top @ 21807). It found strong resistance @ 21800 levels, a Gann Number, and reversed sharply making low @ 20911 almost 900 points down move from the top. It closed @ 21187. So it still holds 21100 levels. For the last... read more

Banknifty opened Big gap up @ 21636 and immediately hit our primary target of 21800 (Top @ 21807). It found strong resistance @ 21800 levels, a Gann Number, and reversed sharply making low @ 20911 almost 900 points down move from the top. It closed @ 21187. So it still holds 21100 levels. For the last two days, it was pure Gann Number Play from 20400-21100-21800 and back to 21100.

 
As I mentioned in yesterday's post, the VIX chart was suggesting a high probability of upmove in VIX value (Double bottom and time factor). So after Gap up and 700-800 up move VIX started increasing instead of falling, it was a clear signal for a down move. Also, Jun-6 was Gann Date, and we saw its effect in today's movement.
 
Now, What Next? The following observations will help us to plan our trade for tomorrow.
  • On a daily chart, RSI shows the possibility of an "M" pattern (Jun-3 and today's RSI are exactly 61 levels-61.32). That suggests the possibility of a down move.
  • On the hourly chart, MACD is showing bearish divergence, indicating momentum on the upside is reducing. Also, Banknifty is above moving averages support levels. So we can till see upside moves that can be of terminal patterns as shown by lines if 20400-20300 levels support remains intact.
 
 
Bollinger Bands are expanding on the daily chart after a long period of contraction. It suggests a big move on the cards in the coming days (No directional view).
 

Gann Angles:

Banknifty hit the Monthly 45-degree (1/1) angle at the top and reversed sharply. So this top may get protected.
 

India VIX:

 
VIX chart shows a sharp upside reversal from Monthly angle
 
VIX Gann Box suggests possible upmove towards 32 levels where it may face resistance. If 32 levels get broken, we may see sharp upmove in VIX in the coming days thereby suggesting sharp down move in Banknifty. So keep watch on VIX.
 
 
 
So for tomorrow possible trade plan:
 
If 21100 is broken down targets are 20850/20400/20100
Above 21450 upside targets are 21800/22000/22500.
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Lesson Posted on 12 Jun Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Investment/Technical Analysis Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Commodities Trading +2 Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Derivatives Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Intraday Trading less

BankNifty Update For Jun-10, 2020

Ninad Deshmukh

I am an entrepreneur who started 2 ventures in the Food sector. Right now I am a Full-time Stock Trader...

Banknifty opened mild Gap up but could not sustain and came down sharply to 21000 levels (20983). But again gave sharp upmove towards our first resistance 21450. So we got a good trade from 21100 to 21450. It faced strong resistance in the 21450-21550 zone. Even though it made good upmove, VIX was... read more

Banknifty opened mild Gap up but could not sustain and came down sharply to 21000 levels (20983). But again gave sharp upmove towards our first resistance 21450. So we got a good trade from 21100 to 21450. It faced strong resistance in the 21450-21550 zone.

 
Even though it made good upmove, VIX was not showing any sign of cooling down and moved up. So it was a clear signal that Banknifty may not cross the resistance zone and may reverse. 
 
Banknifty gave sharp down move making top @ 21568. It was good trade set up below 21400 giving targets 21100 and below 21100, 20850, as mentioned in yesterday's post.
 
The daily chart shows that RSI made the "M" pattern (I discussed this possibility in yesterday's post) and gave us good downside trade. The daily chart shows, Banknifty is facing strong resistance in 21500-600 zone and unable to hold those levels after crossing it.
 
 
The hourly chart shows Banknifty crossed moving averages and MA's given bearish crossover. It is 30EMA-40MA crossover that works well for the Banknifty hourly time frame.
 
Also, MACD gave bearish crossover, suggesting further down move in Banknifty. If Banknifty breaks the support zone of 20400-20300, then we may see a sharp fall towards 19700 (Minor support @ 20100).
 
If 20400-20300 support holds, then we may see another upmove as shown by lines on the chart.
 
 

F & O Data:

The discount in Banknifty spot to future increased from 26 to 47 and the increase in OI is 9%. It indicates Short Build up in Banknifty.
 

Trade Plan:

Below 20300 Target 20100/19700/19500
 
If after a down move finds support in 20400-20300, then above 20400 targets 20800/21100
 
Above 21100 targets 21400/21500
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Lesson Posted on 12 Jun Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Investment/Technical Analysis Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Commodities Trading +2 Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Derivatives Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Intraday Trading less

BankNifty Update For Jun-11, 2020

Ninad Deshmukh

I am an entrepreneur who started 2 ventures in the Food sector. Right now I am a Full-time Stock Trader...

Banknifty moved in a fashion that was expected for Wednesday. The entire day was a premium eating show except for the last 1 hour, which gave sharp upmove. Banknifty closed exactly on Gann Number 21100. The daily chart shows Inside Day candle formation, The RSI @ 60. It is an indication of a possible... read more

Banknifty moved in a fashion that was expected for Wednesday. The entire day was a premium eating show except for the last 1 hour, which gave sharp upmove. Banknifty closed exactly on Gann Number 21100.

 
The daily chart shows Inside Day candle formation, The RSI @ 60. It is an indication of a possible significant move tomorrow in any direction.
 
The hourly chart shows Banknifty consolidated today around MAs and closing above MAs. But bearish crossover is still there. So banknifty may move within range (21800-20400). 
 
 
F & O Data: 
The spot to the future discount of 47 now changed to a premium of 19—no conclusion as very less OI addition.
 

Trade Plan:

If Banknifty opens flat and remains above 21100 then upside targets are 21450/500 and 21800.
Below 21100 targets are 20700/20400/300 and 20100.
 
Due to expiry, we may see very volatile moves.
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Lesson Posted on 12 Jun Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Investment/Technical Analysis Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Commodities Trading +2 Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Derivatives Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Intraday Trading less

BankNifty Update For Jun-12, 2020

Ninad Deshmukh

I am an entrepreneur who started 2 ventures in the Food sector. Right now I am a Full-time Stock Trader...

As expected, today's expiry was a fiery one! Once Banknifty broke 21100, it achieved our target of 20700, making a low of 20525. Yesterday's RSI level of 60 and an inside bar was one of the clues for such a move possibility. Also, VIX always suggesting down bias as there is no fall in VIX with upmove... read more

As expected, today's expiry was a fiery one! Once Banknifty broke 21100, it achieved our target of 20700, making a low of 20525. Yesterday's RSI level of 60 and an inside bar was one of the clues for such a move possibility. Also, VIX always suggesting down bias as there is no fall in VIX with upmove and instead we see an increase in its value.

 
There is a strong possibility of reversal of the trend, and we may see a sharp down move in the coming days/weeks. This confirmation will happen only when Banknifty breaks 20300 levels.
 
The daily chart shows Banknifty still holding 20400-300 zone. If it opens the gap down below 20300, then we may get an excellent down move towards 20000/19700/19500/19000.
 
 
The hourly chart is showing MACD crossing zero, which is a strong bearish signal.  Bearish MA crossover worked well. Below 20300, supports are 20100/19700/20450/19000.
 

F & O Data:

Banknifty spot to future discount is 16 (changed from a premium of 19 yesterday, change of -35 points). OI spurts data shows a 40.6% change in OI. Future OI decreased by 6%, suggesting long position unwinding.
 

India VIX:

Keep a close watch on VIX. It is likely to move up sharply in the coming days.
 

Trade Plan:

Global clues are suggesting possible BIG Gap down opening tomorrow.
 
Below 20300 targets are 20100/19700/19500/19000
 
The above 20700  targets are 20900/21100.
 
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Lesson Posted on 04 Jun Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Investment/Technical Analysis Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Commodities Trading +2 Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Derivatives Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Intraday Trading less

BankNifty Update Jun-4, 2020

Ninad Deshmukh

I am an entrepreneur who started 2 ventures in the Food sector. Right now I am a Full-time Stock Trader...

After making Gap up opening and sharp upmove towards our target of 21300, Banknifty moved much higher to 21619 but reversed very sharply in last hour closing @ 20940. As I mentioned in yesterday's post-Jun-3/Jun-4 are significant dates. If we take a look at today's candle, it very much resembles... read more

After making Gap up opening and sharp upmove towards our target of 21300, Banknifty moved much higher to 21619 but reversed very sharply in last hour closing @ 20940. 

 
As I mentioned in yesterday's post-Jun-3/Jun-4 are significant dates. If we take a look at today's candle, it very much resembles the reversal candle made on Apr-30. It reversed from the resistance zone of  Mar-27 and Apr-30 tops. It also shows the possibility of the H&S pattern if Apr-30 high is not taken out. Tomorrow's session is important (Jun-4) can set the tone for the next move.
 
Observe the BIG Divergence in the MACD-Histogram line indicator on the hourly chart. It has more importance as Banknifty reversed from the resistance zone.
 
 
Gann Box Daily chart showing reversal from resistance and bearish Doji candle
 
 
Weekly Gann Angles:
 
Resistance at Weekly angles and reversal.
 
India VIX Daily Gann Box time cycle date is Jun-4.
 
So most of the setups are showing reversal from the resistance zone and hence the high probability of top is made today considering time cycles matching with the same.
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Lesson Posted on 03 Jun Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Investment/Technical Analysis Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Commodities Trading +2 Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Derivatives Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Intraday Trading less

BankNifty Update for Jun-03. 2020

Ninad Deshmukh

I am an entrepreneur who started 2 ventures in the Food sector. Right now I am a Full-time Stock Trader...

Banknifty crossed the first hurdle of 20400 and closed above it. 20400 is a significant number for Banknifty as it is a 3-digit Gann Degree Number for Banknifty. The price structure on the Daily chart is looking Very Bullish. Price is at the upper Bollinger band that looks like expanding. But more... read more

Banknifty crossed the first hurdle of 20400 and closed above it. 20400 is a significant number for Banknifty as it is a 3-digit Gann Degree Number for Banknifty.

 
The price structure on the Daily chart is looking Very Bullish. Price is at the upper Bollinger band that looks like expanding. But more critical is Time calculations suggesting a sharp move in the coming two days.

Time Calculations: Based on Trading Days

From low made on Mar-24 to Top made on Apr-30 = 23
From Apr-30 to Jun-04 = 23
 
From Apr-30 Top to May-12 Low = 7
From May-8 Top to May-22 Low = 7
From Low of 22 to Jun-03 = 7
 
So Jun-3/Jun-4 are essential days.
 
India VIX:
 
Time calculations based on Gann Box for India VIX (Daily chart) is also suggesting Jun-03/Jun-04 as important days as sharp moves in VIX (either side) likely. Observe move around previous vertical timelines.
 
 
Daily/Weekly Gann Box shows price broke the resistance of angles and we may see good upmove.
To summarise, if Banknifty sustains above 20400, we may see a good upmove towards 21100/21300. If it falls below 20400, then it can go to 19700/19000.
 
 
 
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Lesson Posted on 02 Jun Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Investment/Technical Analysis Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Commodities Trading +2 Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Derivatives Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Intraday Trading less

Banknifty Update For Jun-2, 2020

Ninad Deshmukh

I am an entrepreneur who started 2 ventures in the Food sector. Right now I am a Full-time Stock Trader...

Banknifty opened Gap up @19728 near Gann No 19700 and made a big move. Faced resistance in the zone of 20100 making top @ 20225 and consolidated. It may consolidate for 1-2 days in the range of 20100-19700 before making further up move towards 20400 and 21100. For further upmove, Banknifty needs... read more

Banknifty opened Gap up @19728 near Gann No 19700 and made a big move. Faced resistance in the zone of 20100 making top @ 20225 and consolidated. 

 
It may consolidate for 1-2 days in the range of 20100-19700 before making further up move towards 20400 and 21100. For further upmove, Banknifty needs to hold 19700 zones on a closing basis.
Gann Box:
 
Daily time frame suggesting resistance @ 20400 levels. Also, the time factor suggesting we may see another top (higher or lower than Apr 30). 
On the Weekly time frame also prices reaching resistance levels. Some consolidation is likely before further upmove.
FNO Data:
 
The deep discount in the Spot to Future is reduced from 198 to 66. This discount was primarily due to hedging for cash positions and adjustment for Ex-dividend prices for Banknifty components.
 
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Lesson Posted on 28 May Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Investment/Technical Analysis Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Commodities Trading +2 Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Derivatives Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Intraday Trading less

Banknifty Bullish Move Analysis - May-27, 2020

Ninad Deshmukh

I am an entrepreneur who started 2 ventures in the Food sector. Right now I am a Full-time Stock Trader...

I will just analyze how Gann Angles, RSI, and futures data helped to capture today's move. Following observations on various charts: Yesterday's low was an exact reversal from Weekly 45-degree (1/1), Gann Angle. On the Daily chart, RSI made Bullish "W" pattern. On the Hourly chart Bullish MA... read more
I will just analyze how Gann Angles, RSI, and futures data helped to capture today's move.

Following observations on various charts:

  • Yesterday's low was an exact reversal from Weekly 45-degree (1/1), Gann Angle.
  • On the Daily chart, RSI made Bullish "W" pattern.
  • On the Hourly chart Bullish MA ( I use 30-EMA/40-MA) crossover after Bearish crossover on May 5

Futures Data 

  1. Huge reduction in OI (short covering of positions added on May 22)
  2. Future to spot premium changed from -63 to +5
This information created a Bullish view of Banknifty.
 

The signal for Big Move Today:

Exact opening on Banknifty Gann Degree Number 17600 (opening was @ 17603). This signaled BIG Move(700-800). My target because of this opening is 18300 i.e. next Gann Number. It actually moved too far from even 18300 (not expected).
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Lesson Posted on 26 May Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Investment/Technical Analysis Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Commodities Trading +2 Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Derivatives Trading Financial Planning/Stock Market Trading/Intraday Trading less

Nifty Time Cycles

Ninad Deshmukh

I am an entrepreneur who started 2 ventures in the Food sector. Right now I am a Full-time Stock Trader...

The following chart shows various time cycles on Nifty. What Happened? In 2019, Gann 90 year cycle completed. This cycle comes from 1839 depression followed by 1929 depression. In Feb-2020, 20-year cycle completed from Feb 2000 Top In Jan-2020, 144-month cycle completed from Top made in... read more

The following chart shows various time cycles on Nifty.

 

What Happened?

 

  • In 2019, Gann 90 year cycle completed. This cycle comes from 1839 depression followed by 1929 depression.
  • In Feb-2020, 20-year cycle completed from Feb 2000 Top
  • In Jan-2020, 144-month cycle completed from Top made in Jan-2008 before the 2008 financial crisis.
  • In Dec-2019, 3-year cycle completed from Low made in Dec-2016 post-Demonetisation.

So we saw a big fall as major cycles came together.

What next for Nifty?

  • In Oct-2020, 144-month cycle from Low made in Oct-2008 during the 2008 financial crisis, will complete
  • In Nov-2020, 10-year cycle from Top made in Nov-2010 will complete
  • In Dec-2020, 288-month cycle from Low made in Dec-1996 will complete
  • In Feb-2020, 60-month cycle from Low made in Feb-2016 will complete
  • In Feb-2020, 13-month cycle (it is observed Nifty makes Bottom from Top in 11-13 months) from Top made in Jan-2020 will complete
  • In Sep-2021, 20-year cycle from Low made in Sep-2001 will complete
  • In Dec-2021, 10-year cycle from Low made in Dec-2011 will complete.

So the probability of bottoms formation as per time cycles is Oct-Dec 2020, Feb 2020, and then Sep-Dec 2021 if the bear market continues for long.

Looking at the possible economic impact of the pandemic, the possibility of Oct-Dec low does not seems feasible; it may be a mid-term low. Only "TIME" will tell!

My Experience:

I was expecting a bottom in 2019 below or nearby Mar-2018 low, due to 90-year cycle completion. When the market started falling after the Corporate tax cut rally, I was almost sure that a low would form in 2019. But it did not happen, and the market went up. I was still bearish on the market and expecting fall. I was expecting a sharp fall but never thought it would be of such magnitude. 

So 90-year cycle impact I knew from the past, but experienced the first time and will not be alive to experience again. So knowing something and experiencing something is a quite different phenomenon altogether. That's Big learning!

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