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Lesson Posted on 29/07/2020 Learn Technical Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

Saikummar Dasoju

I m a trader and investor in the Stock Market for the last 15 years. I am conducting online courses in...

Fundamental analysis involves I. Economic Analysis II. Industry Analysis III. Company Analysis Fundamental includes evaluating the company's stock to find its intrinsic value, and analyze factors that may affect the price in the future. Concepts used in FA are Return on equity, Intrinsic... read more
  • Fundamental analysis involves

I. Economic Analysis

II. Industry Analysis

III. Company Analysis

  • Fundamental includes evaluating the company's stock to find its intrinsic value, and analyze factors that may affect the price in the future.
  • Concepts used in FA are Return on equity, Intrinsic value, price to earnings ratio, etc.
  • It requires the right amount of money and time to research. A single person can't research on financial data of every company for. Hence, it requires a research team which is quite expensive.
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Lesson Posted on 15/07/2020 Learn Technical Analysis +4 Stock Market Trading Commodities Trading Derivatives Trading Intraday Trading

BanknIfty Update for Jul-15, 2020

Ninad

Banknifty opened Gap Down and continuously moved down. In the last two days, it almost falls more than 1200 points. We can capture this move from nearly the top of 23000. The daily chart shows Banknifty took support at 30-EMA levels. MACD signal gave a bearish crossover signalling possibility of... read more

Banknifty opened Gap Down and continuously moved down. In the last two days, it almost falls more than 1200 points. We can capture this move from nearly the top of 23000.

 
The daily chart shows Banknifty took support at 30-EMA levels. MACD signal gave a bearish crossover signalling possibility of further fall in the coming days. RSI @ significant levels of 50.
 
Break of 20900 could lead to a sharp fall towards 19700/19500.
On the hourly chart, the MACD signal gave bearish crossover yesterday, and we saw a good fall in Banknifty.

Gann Box:

Weekly Gann Box shows Banknifty exactly changed the trend from the time factor zone. Also, the weekly opening was near the angle, and it reversed after hitting the edge and gave a good fall. It was signalling a bearish trend for the coming weeks.
 
On the daily Gann Box chart, we can see today Banknifty opened near angle, hit angle, and reversed sharply giving good down move.
 

FNO Data:

The future OI decreased by 7% signalling short covering with fall. The spot to next premium is reduced to 4 from 83. My observation with the premium for last week is it is playing contra. When there is a reduction in premium, Banknifty moves up, and when premium increases, it falls.

Trade Plan:

Above 24540 targets are 21650/21700/21800
Below 21300 targets are 21100/21050/20950
 
If 20900 breaks, then the targets are 20400/20100. 20400 is Gann Degree Number for Banknifty.
 
I have a bullish bias for the short term if Banknifty holds the 21100-20900 zone. We may get corrective move towards 21800/22000 or one more leg of the up step towards 22500. Wait and watch.
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Lesson Posted on 15/07/2020 Learn Technical Analysis +4 Stock Market Trading Commodities Trading Derivatives Trading Intraday Trading

VIX Analysis

Ninad

The daily VIX chart shows the formation of Doji candles at the bottom and reversal. The daily RSI crossed the previous resistance level of 40. The MACD signal gave bullish crossover suggesting bullish move in VIX. So the daily chart shows the possibility of VIX moving towards 28 levels in the coming... read more

The daily VIX chart shows the formation of Doji candles at the bottom and reversal. The daily RSI crossed the previous resistance level of 40. The MACD signal gave bullish crossover suggesting bullish move in VIX. So the daily chart shows the possibility of VIX moving towards 28 levels in the coming days.

The weekly chart shows the formation of wedge and reversal from the bottom. VIX may move towards the upper wedge line @ 29-30.

So VIX suggesting the bearish mood of the market and hence the high possibility of fall in Nifty-50 and Banknifty in the coming days/weeks.

VIX Gann Box:

The daily Gann Box shows a reversal from the mid-zone of time factor points. The next time factor date is Jul-21. So will VIX continue to move high till Jul-21 or it will reverse from angle point? Wait and watch.

Using VIX to spot Intraday Reversal on Indices:

VIX is a handy indicator to spot reversal during day trade.
 
Suppose the price of an index moves up and @ resistance zone watch values of VIX. If VIX starts increasing with this upmove instead of reducing, that is a high probability signal of reversal from the resistance zone.
 
The reverse is also true. If with a downfall in an index VIX starts increasing while the price is @ support, it is signalling reversal from the bottom.
 
This rule is not applicable if there is an event/announcement/news is scheduled as VIX will increase due to the uncertainty of the outcome of this event.
 

Recent examples of trade captured by me with this method:

On Jul-08, when Banknifty made a high of 23080 after 2 pm, I was observing VIX, which was continuously increasing and 23000-23050 was a secure resistance zone as it was Upper wedge line resistance. What happened after that? A big and sharp fall of 500 points in the next hour.
 
Similarly On Jul-13, when Banknifty opened Gap up and made the top of 22657 VIX was up. For banknifty 22630-50 was the resistance zone. In the whole day, we got a good fall of 600+ points.
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Lesson Posted on 14/07/2020 Learn Technical Analysis +4 Stock Market Trading Commodities Trading Derivatives Trading Intraday Trading

Bullish Stocks to watch for Week Jul-13-17, 2020

Ninad

PVR: CMP - 1047.10 Above 1070 Target 1140/1240/1300/1320 SL: 1005 NIITTECH: CMP - 1592.90 Above 1620 Targets are 1750/1770 SL: 1560 MCDOWELL-N: CMP - 636.10 It achieved all targets give in the last week. It looks to continue its bullish momentum. Above 643 Targets are 660/670 SL: 630 JINDAL... read more

PVR: CMP - 1047.10

Above 1070 Target 1140/1240/1300/1320 SL: 1005

NIITTECH: CMP - 1592.90

Above  1620 Targets are 1750/1770 SL: 1560

MCDOWELL-N: CMP - 636.10

It achieved all targets give in the last week. It looks to continue its bullish momentum.
 
Above 643 Targets are 660/670 SL: 630

JINDAL STEEL: CMP - 169.15

Above 171 Targets are 178/182/190 SL: 165
 
It is only for educational purposes. I am not advising any trades. 
 
 
 
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Lesson Posted on 12/07/2020 Learn Technical Analysis +4 Stock Market Trading Commodities Trading Derivatives Trading Intraday Trading

BankNifty Update for Jul-13,2020

Ninad

Banknifty did all our targets below 22700 (22500 & 22350). Low made was 22320. The daily chart shows Banknifty is taking support @ the lower line of the wedge. So tomorrow will make or break for Banknifty. If it sustains below the wedge line then we may see further down move towards 22100/21800... read more

Banknifty did all our targets below 22700 (22500 & 22350). Low made was 22320.

 
The daily chart shows Banknifty is taking support @ the lower line of the wedge. So tomorrow will make or break for Banknifty. If it sustains below the wedge line then we may see further down move towards 22100/21800 levels.
 
The daily RSI is @ a significant level of 60. So we can expect a good move on either side.
 

VIX:

The daily Gann Box yet to give us clear direction after crossing time factor. So I would keep a close watch for a further clue from VIX on any clear direction.

FNO Data:

The future OI increased by 11% with a decrease in price suggesting short build-up in Banknifty.

Trade Plan:

Above 22500 targets are 22630/22720/22800
Below 22330 targets are 22050/21800
 
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Lesson Posted on 10/07/2020 Learn Technical Analysis +4 Stock Market Trading Commodities Trading Derivatives Trading Intraday Trading

BankNifty Update For Jul-10, 2020

Ninad

Banknifty opened above 22700, our level for long entry and completed target of 22900. It was rangebound throughout the day between 22700 and 22900. Only in the last hour, it moved sharply towards 23000 levels (top made was 22998). Today it was a typical expiry day move. My bearish view will change... read more

Banknifty opened above 22700, our level for long entry and completed target of 22900. It was rangebound throughout the day between 22700 and 22900. Only in the last hour, it moved sharply towards 23000 levels (top made was 22998).

 
Today it was a typical expiry day move. My bearish view will change only if it crosses yesterday's top. Till then, I am bearish on bank nifty.
Trade Plan:
 
Above 23000 targets are 23150/23300
Below 22700 targets are 22500/22350
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Lesson Posted on 09/07/2020 Learn Technical Analysis +4 Stock Market Trading Commodities Trading Derivatives Trading Intraday Trading

BankNifty Update For Jul-09,2020 - Weekly Expiry

Ninad

Banknifty opened Gap up @ 22700 and then achieved all our bullish targets of 23900/23000. But the upmove was very choppy and looked like a terminating pattern and was not easy to trade. So I did not take a trade on the upside. My observation was Banknifty good up (250-300 points) while Nifty was... read more

Banknifty opened Gap up @ 22700 and then achieved all our bullish targets of 23900/23000. But the upmove was very choppy and looked like a terminating pattern and was not easy to trade. So I did not take a trade on the upside.

 
My observation was Banknifty good up (250-300 points) while Nifty was not at all moving up and was just 10-15 points up and VIX was increasing. That was a signal that there is a high probability of reversal. (I twitted this around 12.30 pm). Banknifty continued its upmove, and VIX was not falling, so I was sure that reversal is on the card from the secure resistance zone of 23900-23000/50.
 
In yesterday's post, I mentioned about daily RSI @ resistance. That was another reason I was expecting a high probability of fall after it moved higher levels to come to at least yesterday's close degrees or below.
 
I got down-trade from almost 23000 to 22700 (got out earlier as it was intraday and not much time left though I was expecting at least 22600. It gave a much lower level of 22500). It reversed from the exact Gann Number of 22500. I took hedged positional short in Banknifty future.
 
The daily chart shows that it reversed exactly from the upper line of the wedge. The daily candle is very bearish one and hence further down move quite likely with a probability of today's high as a top for a few weeks.
 
Today's RSI closed just below yesterday's RSI, signalling reversal as it is turned from resistance.
The weekly chart also shows Banknifty reversal from the resistance zone. Also, this is the 7th week from the low of May-18 week, signalling a strong possibility of reversal as 7th weeks are valuable Gann reversal time for a trend.
 

Gann Box:

The weekly Gann Box shows Banknifty reversal from the angle zone. This angle also provided strong resistance to the previous high made on Apr-30. Reinforcing a strong probability of top made today will not be broken for a few weeks.

Gann Angles:

Banknifty reversed from Monthly & Weekly Gann Angle.

 

VIX:

The daily Gann Box shows we just crossed time factor (3/4th of Box) and we saw trend change at every previous time factor zone. 
The daily VIX chart shows RSI @ support/oversold levels and the formation of Doji (yesterday). So a high probability of upmove in VIX. Similarly weekly RSI also @ support levels and this week's closure would confirm whether VIX will move up next week.

FNO Data:

Future OI increased by 7% and the spot to next premium is 26 points from yesterday's discount of 24, a 50 score up. Signalling bullishness (As usual it is confusing from the last few days).
 

Trade Plan:

Above 22700 targets are 22800/22900
Below 22500 targets are 22350/22150 Break of 22000 may lead to 21800.
 
I have strong Bearish bias. Tomorrow is weekly expiry hence we may see a rangebound move.
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Lesson Posted on 08/07/2020 Learn Technical Analysis +4 Stock Market Trading Commodities Trading Derivatives Trading Intraday Trading

BankNifty Update for Jul-08,2020

Ninad

Banknifty gave first trade today. It corrected on the downside in the first hour and consolidated for the next 2 hours before it gave sharp upmove and completed our targets of 22450/22550 and almost done 22700 (top made today was 22674). Today it broke Jun-24 top of 22479. Now it would be interesting... read more

Banknifty gave first trade today. It corrected on the downside in the first hour and consolidated for the next 2 hours before it gave sharp upmove and completed our targets of 22450/22550 and almost done 22700 (top made today was 22674).

 
Today it broke Jun-24 top of 22479. Now it would be interesting to watch whether today's top will be broken and upmove continues, or we get a reversal from here. 
 
The Daily chart shows RSI @ resistance. The upper line of the wedge is @ 23000-23050, which may act as extreme resistance. MACD is still not showing strong momentum. We need to be cautious at higher levels from here.
Even the Weekly chart shows Banknifty @ secure resistance zone.

FNO Data:

The future OI increased by 9.7% with an increase in price, suggesting a long buildup.
 

Trade Plan:

Above 22700 targets are 22900/23000
Below 22500 targets are 22350/22200/22000
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Lesson Posted on 07/07/2020 Learn Technical Analysis +4 Stock Market Trading Commodities Trading Derivatives Trading Intraday Trading

BankNifty Update for Jul-06, 2020

Ninad

In the update for Jul-02 post, I mentioned "The hourly chart gave a bullish MA crossover. Bullish crossover after bearish crossover suggests the rangebound possibility. The range maybe 21300-22300." In the update for Jul-03 post"The hourly chart shows the possibility of Banknifty coming towards moving... read more

In the update for Jul-02 post, I mentioned "The hourly chart gave a bullish MA crossover. Bullish crossover after bearish crossover suggests the rangebound possibility. The range maybe 21300-22300."

In the update for Jul-03 post"The hourly chart shows the possibility of Banknifty coming towards moving averages (21750-21600) before it starts moving up."
 
Banknifty exactly moved in a range for the last two days and came back to 30-EMA. 
 
The daily chart shows Banknifty taking support near the lower line of the wedge. As long as this support is respected, we can expect an upside move towards 22500/22700/22900.
The hourly chart shows Banknifty taking support @ 30-EMA and Gann Number of 21800. The hourly chart shows a wedge formation. Break of this wedge may give some right sharp moves on either side.

VIX:

The daily Gann Box shows we are near the time factor. We may see a trend change in VIX in the next few days.
The hourly chart of VIX clearly shows the possibility of a spike in VIX as it is at channel support and RSI also at support.

FNO Data:

The change in future OI is not significant (increased by 1.5%). The spot to future is @ discount of 8.5, changed from the premium of 24—nothing much to conclude from this data.
 

Trade Plan:

Above 21950 targets are 22050/21120/22300/22450
Below 21650 targets are 21550/21400/21250/21100
 
I have a bullish bias. 
 
We may see some move tomorrow as we have Lunar eclipse on Jul-05. The effect may be seen on Jul-06. Jul-07 is a minor Gann date. So we may see some sharp moves in the coming days or maybe short term top on Jul-07.
 
 
 
 
 
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Lesson Posted on 07/07/2020 Learn Technical Analysis +4 Stock Market Trading Commodities Trading Derivatives Trading Intraday Trading

BankNifty Update for Jul-07

Ninad

Banknifty opened Gap up 400+ points, and then there was not much of trading opportunity as it was rangebound throughout the day. There is still a possibility of upmove towards 22500/22700, but the daily chart is showing a lack of momentum. It is interesting to observe that Banknifty did not break the... read more

Banknifty opened Gap up 400+ points, and then there was not much of trading opportunity as it was rangebound throughout the day. There is still a possibility of upmove towards 22500/22700, but the daily chart is showing a lack of momentum.

It is interesting to observe that Banknifty did not break the top made on Jun-24 @ 22479 though Nifty-50 made a new top. So there is a divergence in Nifty and Banknifty. It is a sign of weakness unless Banknifty catches with Nifty.

Jul-07 is the Gann date (minor time cycle). It will be interesting to watch whether it breaks Jun-24 high and reverse or continue upmove.

 
The hourly chart shows consolidation after the gap up. Hence, the possibility of further upmove is strong.
 

FNO Data:

The future OI decreased by 8% with an increase in price. So normal analysis suggests Short covering. But it looks like long unwinding as we saw longs building the last two days. So we need to be cautious at higher levels.
 

Trade Plan:

Above 22330 targets are 22450/22550/22700
Below 22120 targets are 21950/21800
 
I am cautiously Bullish.
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