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Introduction to Elliott Wave

Elliot Wave

  • Mankind’s progress does not occur in a straight line.
  • Progress is often characterized by punctuated growth: periods of rapid growth alternating with a phase of non-growth or decline.
  • EW often indicates in advance, the relative magnitude of the next period of market progress or decline.
  • By offering such extremely valuable insights, EW practioners can achieve superior results by being in sync with Market trends.
  • Any price action which did not contribute to trend to go that is a center trend. Eg. May be a reversal on sideway on opposite directions.

EW Basics….

  • Structural design
    • Which reflects a basic harmony & design found in Nature.
  • Rational system of Market Analysis.
    • A rule based approach to price analysis.
  • Each transaction is an effect
    • Joining the chain of causes of others behavior.
  • A feedback loop based on man’ social nature.

The 5 Wave Pattern

  • It is the overriding form of Market progress.
    • All other patterns are subsumed by it.
  • 5 waves of specific structure.
    • Waves 1, 3 & 5 effect directional movement.
    • Waves 2 & 4 are counter-trend.
  • At any time, the Market is somewhere in this basic 5 wave pattern (in the largest degree).

2 Wave Modes

  • Motive,
    • Powerfully move the market.
    • Direction can be Up or Down.
    • Have a 5 wave structure / all motive wave has 5 wave st----
    • Aka: Impulse or Actionary.
  • Corrective
    • A partial retracement / correction of the prior motive wave.
    • Direction can be Up or Down.
    • Have a 3 wave structure.

The 5 Wave Pattern

Important Note:-

Normally / mostly W3 in longer for all the practical consideration.

  • W4 low may be equal to the W1 lengh not a single paise lengh or low W4 on W1.
  • Only in Diagonal may enter in the W4.

3 Rules of EW

  • W2 should not exceed the start of w1.
    • W2 can retrace 100% of w1 but Never more.
  • W3 should not be the shortest of waves 1, 3 & 5
    • The impulse waves in a 5 wave impulse trend.
  • W4 does not enter w1.
    • Except for a diagonal pattern in w1/5.
  • Use High & Low Spot prices for determining the above.
  • These rules are never broken in a valid EW Count!

Complete Cycle

8 waves: 5 + 3

  • Motive waves are numbered
  • Corrective waves are lettered.

Wave Degree

  • The Fractal design of Nature is reflected in the Elliot Wave & the Market.
  • All waves
    • Have component waves of lower degree.
    • Are component / sub waves of higher degree.
  • The process of building greater & lesser degrees continues indefinitely.

Wave Degree

Wave Degree         *5s with the Trend Sa Against the Trend

          (--- next is Arabig symbols)       (--- next is caps)

Grand Supercycle  (I)      (II)     (III)   (IV)   (V)     (a)      (b)     (c)

Supercycle   (I)      (II)     (III)   (IV)   (V)     (a)      (b)     (c)

Cycle I         II       III      IV      V       a        b        c

Primary        (1)     (2)     (3)     (4)     (5)     (A)     (B)     (C)

Intermediate (1)     (2)     (3)     (4)     (5)     (A)     (B)     (C)

Miner 1        2        3        4        5        A       B        C

Minute         (i)      (ii)     (iii)    (iv)    (v)     (a)      (b)     (c)

Minuettee     (i)      (ii)     (iii)    (iv)    (v)     (a)      (b)     (c)

Subminuettee         I         ii        iii       iv       v        a        b        c

                    (--- next is Arabic symbols)       (--- next is caps)

What ever I have betermines ton what even degree, to check son the wave ending of the degree. I must have to check with the one degree lower is the best.

Which Degree?

/ How much data / Who are you?

  • Spot trader / investor.
    • Intraday data useful to see subwaves.
    • But not necessary. EoD data Is good enough!
  • Positional trader – Spot & F&O
    • 30 / 60 min charts for last 1-2 months are very useful.
    • Allow subwaves counts.
    • More precise Entries & Exits!
    • Better SLs & Targets.
  • Day Trader?
    • As much intraday data as you desire!
  • Do counts on Spot EoD OHLC data.
    • Due to spikes & liquidity, counts on F&O data are not reliable.

Essential Design

Any Trend is caused by impulse waves only.

Impluse – Strong move in a direction.

Form / structure

Essential Design

  • Direction of the wave is determined by its relative direction and not its absolute direction.
    • If Motive Wave is Up, it Corrective will be down.
    • If Motive Wave is Down, it Corrective will be up.
  • Waves divide in Motive mode (5 waves) when trending in the same direction as wave of one larger degree.
  • Wave divide in Corrective mode (3 waves) when trending in the opposite direction of the wave of one larger degree.

Essential Design

  • Regardless of Degree, the Form is constant.
  • A Motive wave has
    • 5 subwaves &
    • Can point Up or down
  • A Corrective wave has
    • 3 subwaves &
    • Can point up or down.
  • Direction is Relative.

EW Guidelines

EW Guidelines

  • Extension
  • Equality
  • Alternation
  • Truncation
  • Channeling
  • Ratio Relationships

In Management Switch between linean & log.

Extension.

  • At least one of the 3 impulse waves will be extended.
  • The subwaves of the extended wave could be as long as one of the waves
  • W1 extension is quite rare.

Equality

  • 2 of the 3 non-extended waves will be equal to each other.
    • Usually 1 & 3 or 1 & 5.
    • If ‘perfect’ equality is lacking then the one is likely to be 0.618 x of the other.
  • By closely studying waves 1 & 3 (sizes & subwaves), one can get very practical insights as to how w5 would evolve.
    • Extremely useful to find Entry & Exit.

Alternation

  • If w2 is – simple or complex,
    • Then w4 is likely to be the other!
  • wA is Flat, then w8 is likely to be a zigzag!
    • And vice versa!
    • wC is always 5 waves.

Channeling

  • Useful technique to assess where various waves ‘could’ terminate.
  • Only a guideline to be used along with other wave attribute.

This is generally happens it is not a rule for eg:

Channeling Practical stuff…

  • After waves 1 & 2 are over and w3 has begun – draw a line connecting points 0 & 2 – baseline – extend right.
  • Touching point 1, draw a parallel to this baseline 0-2.
    • This is a tentative line potentially stopping w3.
    • If w3 is strong / extends, it will break this line.
    • Also draw a parallel to w1 starting at point 2
    • Intersection of these two is where a normal w3 would complete.

Channeling Practical Stuff…

  • Once w3 is over, connect tops of waves 1 & 3 – draw a parallel to this starting at w2 – could offer support when the in progress w4 reaches it.
  • Once w4 is over, connect bottom of waves 2 & 4 – draw a parallel via top of w3 – extend right – w4 is very likely to terminate about this line.
    • If w3 was very strong, draw the parallel can be via top of w1 (instead of w3)
  • Draw a parallel to w3 starting from w4 and watch the price action at the intersection of these 2.

Fibonacci Ratio and Elliot Wave

Fibonacci Numbers

  • 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, …
    • Add adjacent 2 numbers to get the next fibo #
  • Golden Ratio: ratio of any 2 adjacent Fibonacci numbers = 0.618 or 1.618
    • Seen in all aspects of Natural phenomena from the smallest to the largest magnitudes.
    • The Markets also have the same mathematical base (?)
  • IMP: Correct (& very profitable) application of Fibonacci ratio can only be done by 1st clearly understanding EW Structure, Form & Personality.
    • Do not apply Fibo Ratios blindly!

Weather a Bull or Bear Market, the waves subdivide to the next Fibonacci sequence.

Fibo Ratio Analysis

  • A number of Fibonacci ratio price relationships occur among waves.
  • 2 types:
    • Multiples / Projections / Extensions.
      • Not to be confused with Extension guideline.
    • These relationships can be used to assess how far a wave is likely to move.
      • Hence extremely useful to find entry & exit points.

Retracements

  • A deep correction corrects 50% or 61.8% of the prior motive move.
    • Sometimes 100% of the prior move.
  • A shallow or ‘sideways’ correction corrects 23.6 or 38.2% of the prior motive move.

Motive Multiples

aka: Projections / Extensions.

  • All 3 motive waves tend to be related to each other by some Fibonacci ratio:
    • 382, 0.618, 1.618, 2.618
    • And rarely by 3.618 & 4.618
    • 1x, 2x, 3x & 4x relationships are also seen.
  • These relationships can be in absolute or %age terms.
    • Look for them in both liner & log charts of the security.

Impulse / Motive Waves

Waves 1, 3 & 5

2 types of Motive Waves

  • Impulse Wave
    • W4 never enters w1.
    • Subwaves 1, 3 & 5 of Impulse are Motive
      • With subwave 3 specifically being an Impulse.
    • Diagonals
      • Occur in w1 & w5 only.
      • Subwave 4 overlaps with sw1.

+ W3 diagonal cannot happen. If I am monkey w3 where I see diagonal then check for the wave cannot.

Impulse Wave 1.

W / w1

  • Starts at the end of a prior corrections.
  • Look for the last wave of the correction to be made.
    • Wave C with 5 subwaves.
    • Enter Long / Short.
  • SL below (above) point Zero (end of the correction)!
  • Is the start of a 5 wave impulse move.
  • Has 5 subwaves.

Impulse Wave 3

W / w3

  • Starts at the end of w2.
  • Usually the longest & strongest.
  • Almost vertical rise / fall.
  • Look for prices to move suddenly & swiftly.
  • Often has gaps in the direction of the move.
  • Steeper than w1.
  • Volume usually increases.

Impulse Wave 3

W / w3

  • EW Rule: Should never be the shortest of w1, 3 & 5
  • At least 1x of w1. Often 1.618 x of w1.
  • Tendency to Extend.
    • 2x 2.618x, 3.618 of w1
    • Rarely even more!
  • The best wave of trade.
    • If one can get in at it’s start and hold on till it completes.
    • How?

Impulse Wave 5

W / w5

  • Extended or Normal w5?
    • If w1 & w3 are equal, then:
      • W5 is likely to extend; Guidelines of Extension.
    • If w1 or w3 is extended, then
      • W5 is likely the non-extended wave; Guideline of Equality.
    • Normal w5
      • 38 or 0.61 of points 0-3 added (subtracted) from end w1
    • Extended w5
      • 1x or 1.618x of points 0-3 added (subtracted) from end w4.
    • Watch subwaves of w5
      • For Normal / Extended / Truncated.

Nothing corrects5

ABC corrects 0-5

2 corrects 1

4 corrects 3

Impulse Waves Extensions

  • A wave having a disproportionately large move.
  • Looking for Extensions (ext):
    • In W1, is subwave w3 ? 1.6 w1, then ext-W1.
    • W2 is <= 0.38 of w1, then ext-w3.
    • W3 > 1.6x of w1, then ext-w3.
    • W4 is shallow, esp <= 0.23 of w3, then ext-w5.
    • Normal w1 & w3, then ext-w5.

Normally we can expect more than 5 subwaves in an extension even with in 3 or 5 on.

Extensions Practical stuff…

  • At times, the subwaves of the extended wave are as large (in size & time) as the other 4 waves of the larger degree.
  • Waves with 9, 13, 17, 21, etc…
    • Subwaves can be clearly distinguished.
  • Extended waves can be extremely profitable
    • If one trades them right…!!!
    • Study subwaves, fibo extension & reflex points closely to avoid getting stopped out of an extension prematurely.

Impulse Waves Diagonals

  • W4 overlaps w1.
  • Occure in only waves 1 & 5.

Leading Diagonal

  • Leading diagonal – 5-3-5-3-5 – occurs only in w1.
  • Ending diagonal – 3-3-3-3-3 – occurs only in w5.
  • Aka: diagonal triangles.
  • Can be converging or expanding.
  • Same as Rising / Falling Wedge in Dow Theory.

Probably look like

Diagonals

Bullish Ending Diagonal aka: Falling Wedge.

Bearish Ending Diagonal aka: Rising Wedge.

Ending Diagonals have a big connection.

Wave 5 (w5) can –

  • Normal Wave
  • Extended Wave
  • Truncated

W5 (Truncated) probably have 5 wave on

In wave 5 (w5) Diagonal truncation ---- happen.

Impulse Waves Failures / Truncations

  • When an Impulse wave falls short of its minimum price objective.
  • Typically when w5 falls to exceed the end of w3.
  • Can easily be confused for a subwave 1 of w5.
    • Especially when w5 is expected to extend but instead falls.
  • The subsequent move in the opposite direction in quite strong, i.e. swift & sharp.
    • Can be a good contra-trend move!
    • But if you fall to recognise truncation, loss on trend position

To have wave count

Have a larger picture

What degree I am port of and

What is a big wave I am voltas

2 deep connection expect shallow correction eg voltas

Corrective Waves

Waves 2 & 4

Wave B

~ Wave A & B ~

Corrective Wave labeling.

  • Corrective waves are labeled in letters:
    • A-b-c-d-e & w-x-y-z.
    • In caps / small case based on degree.
  • W2 corrects w1 ; w4 corrects w3.
    • The subwaves of w2 & w4 are lettered; lower degree.
  • wB corrects wA
    • A-B-C corrects a 5 wave sequence of the same degree.
    • a-b-c- are subwaves of a higher degree corrective wave.

Price Time

Wave 2 3 days Rs. 40

Wave 4 10 days Rs. 25

When the corrections end not before the both on one is opening the -----

Corrective Waves

  • All moves against the trend of one larger degree are called corrective.
  • Resistance from the higher degree trend ‘prevents’ a correction from developing a full motive structure.
  • This conflict makes Corrective waves not as clear out as Motive in form.
    • Hence a challenge to count and identify correctly.
  • Usually have 3 subwaves.

Corrective Waves

  • Once 5 lower degree (Ld) waves complete 1 higher degree (Hd) wave, the subsequent Hd correction will be bigger than Ld corrections 2 & 4.
    • Measure the amount & time taken for the Ld 2 & 4.
    • The Hd correction will be > in distance and time taken to complete than the above values.
  • Extremely useful guideline.
    • How & why!

Do not expect the impulse before these things ---- happens.

Corrective Waves

Common features…

  • If you feel the Market is in the middle of a corrective move, it is usually better to use the opportunity to figure out where it likely to end and be prepared to enter the next motive move.
    • Corrections by nature are more difficult to trade.
    • Trade corrections only after building competency in EW.
  • The last corrective: wC always has 5 subwaves.
    • Useful guide to assess a potential end of the correction.
    • Use this to look for low risk, high probability setups in the direction of the higher degree.

4 types of Corrective Waves

  • Zigzag
  • Flats
  • Triangles
  • Combinations

Principle 12 of dow Theory

Zigzags

  • All zigzags are 3 wave structures – A-B-C : 5-3-5.
  • wA has 5 subwaves and is impulse.
  • wB has 3 subwaves,
    • usually retraces 0.38 – 0.62 of wA.
  • wC has 5 subwaves.
    • Is impulse & moves 1x, 1.38x, 1.62x of wA.
    • Observe this Form & Distance to assess ending of zigzag.
  • Anticipating Zigzag:
    • Usually in w2.
    • Guideline of Alternation.

Flats

  • Found in strong trends.
    • Usually follow or precede an extension.
    • Usually retrace less than a zigzag.
  • 3 types of Flats – based on differences in shape.
    • Regular
    • Expanding
    • Running
  • All have 3 wave structures: 3-3-5.

Regular Flat

  • wA has 3 subwaves.
    • A lack of strength (?) to correct deeply the prior impulse.
  • wB has 3 subwaves,
    • corrects wA and usually retraces ~ 100% of wA.
  • wC has 5 subwaves,
    • Usually ends at 1 – 1.38x of wA.

Extensions normally may be 5 3 5.

Expanding Flat

  • wA has 3 subwaves.
    • A lack of strength (?) to correct ----ply the prior impulse.
  • wB has 3 subwaves,
    • Corrects wA and retraces >100% of wA.
    • It appears as though the higher degree trend is back.
    • But suddenly the prices again correct.
  • wC has 5 subwaves
    • Starts at the end of wB (at a point beyond wA).
    • Usually ends at 1.38 – 1.62x of wA.
    • Sometime a strong wC: 2-2.618x of wA.

wC might have extend wave as well in it subwave 3 or 5 look out for it get complete.

If I happen to see triangle probably w4.

Running Flat - rare

  • wA has 3 subwaves.
    • A lack of strength (?) to correct deeply the prior impulse.
  • wB has 3 subwaves
    • Corrects wA and retraces >100% of wA.
    • It appears as though the higher degree trend is back.
    • But suddenly the prices again correct.
  • wC has 5 subwaves,
    • Starts at the end of wB (at a point beyond wA).
    • Ends earlier to wA end.

Double negatives will tell what it is not.

Triangles

  • Triangles form mostly in w4.
    • Can also be part of w2 and w8.
  • Converging or Expanding type.
  • Structure: 3-3-3-3-3
    • 5 internal waves, a-b-c-d-e.
    • Each of which has 3 subwaves.
  • Triangles nearly always occur in a position prior to the final motive wave of one Hd.
    • W4, w8 complex corrections
    • Final wX in double / triple zigzag / combination
    • So what’s next and what should one do?

Both the statements are same, in a different way.

Triangles

Corrective Wave (Horizontal) Triangles

Bull Market

Bear Market

Ascending (Top bal. bottom rising)

Descending (top declining, bottom flat)

Triangles

Corrective Wave (Horizontal) Triangles

Bull Market

Bear Market

Contracting or symmetrical (Top declining, bottom rising)

Expanding or Reverse symmetrical (Top rising, bottom declining)

Expending triangle eg.: Nifty 2014 – Mar / Apr.

Normally

A will be smaller than a

C will be smaller than b

D will be smaller than c

E will be smaller than d

Combinations

  • A single ‘3’ is any simple correction:
    • Zigzag, Flats, Triangles.
    • A Triangle is called a ‘e’ for this purpose even though it has 5 subwaves.
  • Double or Triple ‘3’s
    • Combination of 2 or 3 simple corrective patterns.
    • Each labeled W / Y / Z
      • Each of which can be a zigzag / flat / triangle
    • With a ‘connection’ labeled X
      • Which is turn can be any of the corrective patterns
      • But is usually a zigzag.
    • Recognising, labeling & Trading them correctly is a challenge even for experienced ellioticians.

Combinations

Complex, float

  • A Flat’s way of extending sideways action (in time).
    • Almost always horizontal in character.
  • Never have more than one zigzag.
  • Never have more than one triangle.
    • And when it occurs, is the final wave of the combination!
    • Hence know that the correction is coming to an end.
  • Form: W – X – Y – X – Z
    • Where each of the W / Y / Z / X can be Any of the simple corrective patterns.

Corrections happens in

Complex corrections

  • Ashok Leyland
  • Abirnahova

Double 3s…

Practical Elliot Wave

‘C’ in a correction phase probably sharp.

Look for

  • Impulsive, corrective, save
  • Feature to look for

Doing a EW Count…

  • It is possible to have > 1 EW Count for a chart.
    • With all the counts following all the EW Rules & Guidelines.
  • Based on ‘Personality’ & ‘Right Look’, there will be a preferred Primary Count.
    • Others are called Alternate Counts.
  • As price action unfolds, the labeling & count may
    • Get validated as price unfolds as expected.
    • Change a little: eg: re-labeling the subwaves or
    • Invalidated & change significantly as some expected price action forces a radically different count (and view).

Personality

  • Each wave has certain characteristic price behavior.
    • By paying close attention to this, one can arrive at a more appropriate count for a chart.
  • What is the Personality?
    • Impulse or Corrective?
    • Form: Do the subwaves fit the wave?
    • Is another wave personality & form better?
  • Easy to assess once one has internalized the wave form & typical behaviours of all the 8 waves
    • As already discussed in prior sections.

When I am doubtful about the count

  • Wait for the clarity
  • Let the chart show something
  • Do not forced labeling / counting
  • It is perfectly to have two counts.
  • Better to have open us for one or more may be one, two may be three on myself as I do this, it will keep me in the side of market moment.

Right Look

  • The entire chart has a certain Balance & Proportionality.
    • In terms of Price action and Time.
  • Has a motive wave moved:
    • In a way it is expected to?
    • Moved as much as it is expected to?
      • Fibonacci projections are useful here.
    • Has a corrective wave:
      • Spent ‘enough’ time correcting?

Get this line to the cut level

  • Retraced ‘enough’ of the prior motive?
    • Fibonacci retracement levels are useful here.
  • Sense of ‘Right Look’ comes with practice & experience.

(In)Validation / Reflex Points

  • Price action crossing / not crossing a kew EW point:
    • Validates or invalidates an assumed EW count.
    • The likely subsequent price behavior becomes clarified.
    • Offers excellent Low Risk Setups (LRS)
  • Examples:
    • Point 0: w2 should never go beyond start of w1.
    • Point 1: w4 should never enter beyond end of w1.
    • What other points could one use?
  • In the examples above:
    • What would be Primary & Alternate Counts?
    • Which would be (In) Validated & why?

I am ready to lose money rather than admitting ‘myself’ wrong to ‘me’

Have a primary question is

What else could happen other then my primary view.

Which allows me to have two three counts and keeps me ----.

Start like questioning

Is this a motive or correction.

Practical EW – Starting a count

  • Identify a clear High (Low)
    • Start labeling, with this high (low) as w1/a, w2/b, w3/c.
    • Subsequent price action will clarify whether it’s a 5 or 3.
    • Subwaves can help clarify the mode of the wave.
  • If the above labeling does not ‘fit’,
    • Start the count with 2/3/4/ or b/c.
    • The more EW rules fit, more reliable the Count.
    • Personality & Right Look.
  • Which Degree?
    • Always be aware of which Degree one is looking at.
    • How does it relate to at least one degree above?
    • This keeps you on the side of the bigger Trend.

Practical EW

  • What is the most probable pattern?
    • Impulse / Corrective / I don’t know.
    • Is there an Alternate Count?
  • What Market activity will confirm the assume (preferred) pattern?
    • Which EW rule / guideline is useful?
    • What (In)Validation Point should one watch?
  • What Market activity invalidates the assumed position?
    • The EW rule / guideline & (In)Validation Point for this could be different from the one to confirm.

Practical EW

  • Are the subwaves unfolding as they should for the assumed count?

Get this to the count level.

  • Trade the Market, not the Forecast!!!
    • Prepare for the most probable but adapt for the improbable.
    • Be quick to change your view if price action invalidates the current view.
    • Exist your position quickly when this happens.
  • No clearly defined 5s and 3s?
    • Do not force a count!
    • Wait for more price action.
    • Look at other charts.

L R S

Low Risk Setups

Finding / Awaiting / Acting on very low risk, very high probability opportunities.

W3 – are short in Time.

Like 100 m dash / sprint.

And the price move very fast.

EW LRS

Wave 3s.

  • High probability Impulse Move.
  • Has to go above w2.
  • At least 1x of w1, most likely 1.618x of w1.
  • Good chance of Extension.
  • Look at its subwaves for further insight.
  • Stop Loss: Beyond end of w2, point 2.

ES LRA

Waves C

Advantage of second move

  • You already have waves A & B.
  • Know the type of correction unfolding.
  • Can measure likely endpoint of wC
  • 5 subwaves, fast & swift.
  • Stop Loss: Beyond start of wA.

EW LRS

After extended 5th

  • After an extended 5th
    • wA of the ensuing correction will be sharp.
    • And travel to w2 of one lower degree.
    • This measuring implication allows for a quick & safe trade, esp Margin & F&O.
  • Will wA connection carefully, it is a zigzag or flat?
    • 5 or 3 subwaves?
    • If flat, wB could go beyond the previous High (Low) and then wC could go down (up) to meet the target for the whole correction

Watch wA, is it 5 or 3 subwaves?

Success in EW…

  • Identifying low risk entry points Before the market has reached there.
  • Having the Courage to act when the market gets there.
    • Doing this without any further confirmation.
  • Having the Discipline to hold on to the position till
    • Your view is proved wrong or
    • The profit objective is reached.
  • Getting out of the position the moment the price action confirms your analysis is wrong.
  • Staying out of the market when you are unable to come up with a clear, valid wave count.
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