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CBSE - Class 12 Mathematics Probability Worksheet

Miscellaneous Exercise on Chapter 13

1.
An electronic assembly consists of two subsystems, say, A and B. From previous testing procedures, the following probabilities are assumed to be known: $P(A \text{ fails}) = 0.2$, $P(B \text{ fails alone}) = 0.15$, $P(A \text{ and } B \text{ fail}) = 0.15$. Evaluate the following probabilities (i) $P(A \text{ fails|B has failed})$
2.
An electronic assembly consists of two subsystems, say, A and B. From previous testing procedures, the following probabilities are assumed to be known: $P(A \text{ fails}) = 0.2$, $P(B \text{ fails alone}) = 0.15$, $P(A \text{ and } B \text{ fail}) = 0.15$. Evaluate the following probabilities (ii) $P(A \text{ fails alone})$
3.
A couple has two children, (ii) Find the probability that both children are females, if it is known that the elder child is a female.
4.
If A and B are two events such that $P(A) \neq 0$ and $P(B | A) = 1$, then
a. $A \subset B$ b. $B \subset A$ c. $B = \phi$ d. $A = \phi$
5.
If $P(A|B) > P(A)$, then which of the following is correct :
a. $P(B|A) < P(B)$ b. $P(A \cap B) < P(A) . P(B)$ c. $P(B|A) > P(B)$ d. $P(B|A) = P(B)$
6.
A couple has two children, (i) Find the probability that both children are males, if it is known that at least one of the children is male.
7.
If A and B are any two events such that $P(A) + P(B) – P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A)$, then
a. $P(B|A) = 1$ b. $P(A|B) = 1$ c. $P(B|A) = 0$ d. $P(A|B) = 0$
8.
Suppose that 5% of men and 0.25% of women have grey hair. A grey haired person is selected at random. What is the probability of this person being male? Assume that there are equal number of males and females.
9.
Assume that the chances of a patient having a heart attack is 40%. It is also assumed that a meditation and yoga course reduce the risk of heart attack by 30% and prescription of certain drug reduces its chances by 25%. At a time a patient can choose any one of the two options with equal probabilities. It is given that after going through one of the two options the patient selected at random suffers a heart attack. Find the probability that the patient followed a course of meditation and yoga?
10.

Suppose we have four boxes A,B,C and D containing coloured marbles as given below: 

One of the boxes has been selected at random and a single marble is drawn from it. If the marble is red, what is the probability that it was drawn from box A?, box B?, box C?

11.
$A$ and $B$ are two events such that $P(A) \neq 0$. Find $P(B|A)$, if (ii) $A \cap B = \phi$
12.
Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls and Bag II contains 4 red and 5 black balls. One ball is transferred from Bag I to Bag II and then a ball is drawn from Bag II. The ball so drawn is found to be red in colour. Find the probability that the transferred ball is black.
13.
If a leap year is selected at random, what is the chance that it will contain 53 tuesdays?
14.
Suppose that 90% of people are right-handed. What is the probability that at most 6 of a random sample of 10 people are right-handed?
15.
If each element of a second order determinant is either zero or one, what is the probability that the value of the determinant is positive? (Assume that the individual entries of the determinant are chosen independently, each value being assumed with probability $\frac{1}{2}$).
16.
$A$ and $B$ are two events such that $P(A) \neq 0$. Find $P(B|A)$, if (i) $A$ is a subset of $B$

Worksheet Answers

Solution:

Given Variables & Initial Setup

Based on the problem statement, we define the following events:

  • Let $A$ be the event that subsystem A fails. Thus, $P(A) = 0.2$.
  • Let $B$ be the event that subsystem B fails.
  • The probability that B fails alone is given as $P(B \cap A^c) = 0.15$.
  • The probability that both A and B fail is given as $P(A \cap B) = 0.15$.

Step 1: Determine the total probability of event B

The total probability of event $B$ failing is the sum of the probability that B fails while A fails, and the probability that B fails while A does not fail.

$P(B) = P(A \cap B) + P(B \cap A^c)$ [By the Law of Total Probability]

$P(B) = 0.15 + 0.15 = 0.30$

Step 2: Applying the Definition of Conditional Probability

We are required to find $P(A \text{ fails} | B \text{ has failed})$, which is denoted as $P(A|B)$.

The formula for conditional probability is:

$P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}$ [Per the Axiom of Conditional Probability]

Step 3: Substitution and Calculation

Substitute the values derived in the previous steps:

$P(A|B) = \frac{0.15}{0.30}$

$P(A|B) = \frac{15}{30} = 0.5$

Visual Representation of Event Spaces

A B 0.15 0.05 0.15 Sample Space

Final Solution: $P(A|B) = 0.5$

Solution:

Step 1: Formal Definition of Given Probabilities

Let $A$ be the event that subsystem $A$ fails, and $B$ be the event that subsystem $B$ fails. Based on the problem statement, we define the following probabilities:

  • $P(A) = 0.2$ [Probability that A fails]
  • $P(B \cap A^c) = 0.15$ [Probability that B fails alone, where $A^c$ denotes the event that A does not fail]
  • $P(A \cap B) = 0.15$ [Probability that both A and B fail]

Step 2: Logical Derivation for "A fails alone"

The event "A fails alone" can be represented as the event that $A$ occurs, but $B$ does not occur. In set-theoretic notation, this is $P(A \cap B^c)$.

By the Law of Total Probability or the properties of set operations, the event $A$ can be expressed as the union of two mutually exclusive events:
$A = (A \cap B) \cup (A \cap B^c)$

Consequently, by the Addition Theorem of Probability for mutually exclusive events:
$P(A) = P(A \cap B) + P(A \cap B^c)$

Step 3: Algebraic Calculation

We rearrange the equation to isolate the target probability $P(A \cap B^c)$:

$P(A \cap B^c) = P(A) - P(A \cap B)$

Substituting the known values into the equation:

$P(A \cap B^c) = 0.2 - 0.15$

$P(A \cap B^c) = 0.05$

Step 4: Venn Diagram Representation

0.05 0.15 0.15 A B Sample Space

The diagram illustrates the intersection $P(A \cap B) = 0.15$, the "A alone" region $P(A \cap B^c) = 0.05$, and the "B alone" region $P(B \cap A^c) = 0.15$.

Final Solution: $P(\text{A fails alone}) = 0.05$

Solution:

Step 1: Defining the Sample Space

Let the gender of a child be represented by $B$ (Boy) or $G$ (Girl). For a family with two children, the sample space $S$ consists of all possible ordered pairs $(Child_1, Child_2)$:

$S = \{BB, BG, GB, GG\}$

Each outcome is considered equally likely, where $|S| = 4$. [Per the Classical Definition of Probability]

Step 2: Defining the Events

Let $E$ be the event that both children are females. Thus, $E = \{GG\}$.

Let $F$ be the event that the elder child is a female. The elder child corresponds to the first position in the ordered pair. Thus, $F = \{GG, GB\}$.

Step 3: Applying Conditional Probability Formula

We are required to find the probability of event $E$ given that event $F$ has occurred, denoted as $P(E|F)$.

The formula for conditional probability is:

$P(E|F) = \frac{P(E \cap F)}{P(F)}$ [By the definition of Conditional Probability]

Step 4: Calculating Intersections and Probabilities

First, identify the intersection of events $E$ and $F$:

$E \cap F = \{GG\} \cap \{GG, GB\} = \{GG\}$

Calculate the individual probabilities based on the sample space size:

  • $P(E \cap F) = \frac{|E \cap F|}{|S|} = \frac{1}{4}$
  • $P(F) = \frac{|F|}{|S|} = \frac{2}{4} = \frac{1}{2}$

Step 5: Final Computation

Substitute the values into the conditional probability formula:

$P(E|F) = \frac{1/4}{2/4} = \frac{1}{2}$

Sample Space S = {BB, BG, GB, GG} F = {GB, GG} E={GG} Venn Diagram Representation

Final Solution: The probability that both children are females, given that the elder child is a female, is $\frac{1}{2}$.

4.

Solution:

Step 1: Analyzing the Given Conditional Probability

We are provided with the condition $P(B|A) = 1$, where $P(A) \neq 0$. The definition of conditional probability for any two events $A$ and $B$ in a sample space $S$ is given by:

$P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}$ [Definition of Conditional Probability]

Step 2: Substituting and Solving for Set Relations

Substituting the given value $P(B|A) = 1$ into the definition:

$1 = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}$

$P(A) = P(A \cap B)$ [Algebraic manipulation]

Step 3: Logical Inference on Set Membership

The identity $P(A \cap B) = P(A)$ implies that the probability of the intersection of $A$ and $B$ is equal to the probability of $A$ itself. In the context of set theory and probability measures:

  • Since $A \cap B \subseteq A$, the equality $P(A \cap B) = P(A)$ indicates that all elements of $A$ are contained within the intersection of $A$ and $B$.
  • This leads to the condition $A \subseteq B$.

Step 4: Geometric Representation of $A \subseteq B$

Sample Space S B A

Step 5: Theoretical Conclusion

Given $P(B|A) = 1$ and $P(A) \neq 0$, it follows that:

$P(A \cap B) = P(A)$

By set-theoretic axioms, this indicates that the event $A$ is a subset of event $B$ ($A \subset B$). Specifically, if the occurrence of $A$ guarantees the occurrence of $B$, $A$ must be entirely contained within the region defined by $B$.

Final Solution: A \subset B

5.

Solution:

Step 1: Analyzing the Conditional Probability Expression

The given condition is $P(A|B) > P(A)$. Per the definition of conditional probability for any two events $A$ and $B$ where $P(B) > 0$, the probability of $A$ given $B$ is expressed as:

$P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}$

[By the Multiplicative Rule of Probability]

Step 2: Substitution and Algebraic Manipulation

Substituting the definition into the given inequality:

$\frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} > P(A)$

Assuming $P(B) > 0$, we can multiply both sides by $P(B)$ without reversing the inequality:

$P(A \cap B) > P(A) \cdot P(B)$

Step 3: Evaluating the Implications for Event B

To determine the relation between $P(B|A)$ and $P(B)$, we use the symmetry of the intersection formula, $P(A \cap B) = P(B \cap A)$. Applying the conditional probability definition for $B$ given $A$ (assuming $P(A) > 0$):

$P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}$

From our inequality $P(A \cap B) > P(A) \cdot P(B)$, divide both sides by $P(A)$:

$\frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} > \frac{P(A) \cdot P(B)}{P(A)}$

$P(B|A) > P(B)$

Step 4: Visualizing Event Dependency

A B A∩B Sample Space (S)

Step 5: Theoretical Conclusion

The condition $P(A|B) > P(A)$ implies that the occurrence of event $B$ increases the probability of the occurrence of event $A$. This is the definition of positive correlation between two events in probability theory. Mathematically, this is equivalent to $P(B|A) > P(B)$.

Relationship Logical Equivalent
$P(A|B) > P(A)$ $P(B|A) > P(B)$
Events are positively correlated Occurrence of one increases the likelihood of the other

Final Solution: The correct relation is $P(B|A) > P(B)$.

Solution:

Step 1: Defining the Sample Space

Let the sample space $S$ represent all possible gender combinations for two children, where $B$ denotes a boy and $G$ denotes a girl. The birth order matters:

$S = \{BB, BG, GB, GG\}$

The total number of outcomes is $n(S) = 4$.

Step 2: Defining Events

Let $E$ be the event that both children are males, and $F$ be the event that at least one child is male.

  • $E = \{BB\}$
  • $F = \{BB, BG, GB\}$

Per the definition of events, the intersection of $E$ and $F$ is:

$E \cap F = \{BB\}$

Step 3: Applying Conditional Probability

We are required to find $P(E|F)$, the probability that both children are males given that at least one is a male. [By the Definition of Conditional Probability]:

$P(E|F) = \frac{P(E \cap F)}{P(F)}$

Calculating the individual probabilities:

  • $n(E \cap F) = 1 \implies P(E \cap F) = \frac{1}{4}$
  • $n(F) = 3 \implies P(F) = \frac{3}{4}$

Step 4: Algebraic Computation

Substituting the values into the formula:

$P(E|F) = \frac{1/4}{3/4}$ $P(E|F) = \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{4}{3} = \frac{1}{3}$

Visual Representation of Sample Space

S = {BB, BG, GB, GG} Condition (F) restricts sample to: {BB, BG, GB} Target Outcome (E): {BB}

Final Solution: The probability that both children are males, given that at least one is male, is $\frac{1}{3}$.

7.

Solution:

Step 1: Formal Representation of the Given Condition

The problem provides the following equation involving the probabilities of two events, $A$ and $B$, within a sample space $S$:

$P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) = P(A)$

[Given: The probability of the union of two events is defined by the Addition Theorem of Probability: $P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)$].

Step 2: Algebraic Simplification

By substituting the definition of the union of two events into the given equation, we derive the following logical equivalence:

$P(A \cup B) = P(A)$

[By the Axiom of Probability, for any two sets $A$ and $B$, $A \subseteq (A \cup B)$].

Step 3: Logical Deduction of Set Relations

If $P(A \cup B) = P(A)$, this implies that the event $(A \cup B)$ is effectively equivalent to event $A$ in terms of probability measure. Since $A \subseteq (A \cup B)$ is always true, the condition $P(A \cup B) = P(A)$ implies that the set $B$ must be a subset of $A$.

Specifically:

  • If $B \subseteq A$, then $A \cup B = A$.
  • Consequently, $P(A \cup B) = P(A)$.

[Per the Monotonicity Property of Probability: If $B \subseteq A$, then $P(B) \leq P(A)$ and $P(A \cap B) = P(B)$].

Step 4: Verification via the Inclusion-Exclusion Principle

Revisiting the original equation: $P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) = P(A)$.

Subtract $P(A)$ from both sides:

$P(B) - P(A \cap B) = 0$

$P(B) = P(A \cap B)$

This result is the necessary and sufficient condition for $B \subseteq A$. If the probability of the intersection of two events is equal to the probability of one of the events, that event must be contained within the other.

B A S

Step 5: Synthesis of Results

The given equation simplifies to $P(B) = P(A \cap B)$, which holds if and only if $B$ is a subset of $A$ ($B \subseteq A$).

Final Solution: B \subseteq A

Solution:

Step 1: Definition of Events and Probabilities

Let $M$ be the event that the selected person is male, and $W$ be the event that the selected person is female. Let $G$ be the event that the selected person has grey hair.

Given that there are equal numbers of males and females, the prior probabilities are:

  • $P(M) = 0.5$
  • $P(W) = 0.5$

The conditional probabilities of having grey hair given the gender are:

  • $P(G|M) = 5\% = 0.05$
  • $P(G|W) = 0.25\% = 0.0025$

Step 2: Total Probability of Having Grey Hair

Per the Law of Total Probability, the probability that a randomly selected person has grey hair is given by:

$P(G) = P(M) \cdot P(G|M) + P(W) \cdot P(G|W)$

$P(G) = (0.5 \times 0.05) + (0.5 \times 0.0025)$

$P(G) = 0.025 + 0.00125$

$P(G) = 0.02625$

Step 3: Applying Bayes' Theorem

We aim to find the probability that the person is male given they have grey hair, denoted as $P(M|G)$. According to Bayes' Theorem:

$P(M|G) = \frac{P(M) \cdot P(G|M)}{P(G)}$

Substituting the calculated values:

$P(M|G) = \frac{0.5 \times 0.05}{0.02625}$

$P(M|G) = \frac{0.025}{0.02625}$

Step 4: Algebraic Simplification

To simplify the fraction, multiply both the numerator and denominator by 100,000:

$P(M|G) = \frac{2500}{2625}$

Divide both terms by their greatest common divisor ($125$):

$P(M|G) = \frac{2500 \div 125}{2625 \div 125} = \frac{20}{21}$

Visual Representation of Probability Space

Males (0.5) Females (0.5) Grey Hair (0.025) Grey Hair (0.00125)

Final Solution: The probability that the person with grey hair is male is $\frac{20}{21} \approx 0.9524$ or $95.24\%$.

Solution:

Step 1: Definition of Events

Let $E$ be the event that the patient suffers a heart attack. Let $A_1$ and $A_2$ be the events of choosing the meditation/yoga course and the drug prescription, respectively.

  • $P(A_1) = 0.5$ (Given: patient chooses one of two options with equal probability)
  • $P(A_2) = 0.5$

The initial probability of a heart attack is $0.40$.

Step 2: Calculating Conditional Probabilities

We determine the reduced probability of a heart attack given the chosen course:

  • If the patient chooses meditation ($A_1$), the risk is reduced by $30\%$: $P(E|A_1) = 0.40 \times (1 - 0.30) = 0.40 \times 0.70 = 0.28$ [By application of percentage reduction]
  • If the patient chooses the drug ($A_2$), the risk is reduced by $25\%$: $P(E|A_2) = 0.40 \times (1 - 0.25) = 0.40 \times 0.75 = 0.30$ [By application of percentage reduction]

Step 3: Application of Bayes' Theorem

We are required to find $P(A_1|E)$, the probability that the patient followed meditation/yoga given they suffered a heart attack. [Per Bayes' Theorem: $P(A_i|E) = \frac{P(A_i)P(E|A_i)}{\sum P(A_j)P(E|A_j)}$]

Calculating the total probability $P(E)$:

$P(E) = P(A_1)P(E|A_1) + P(A_2)P(E|A_2)$ $P(E) = (0.5 \times 0.28) + (0.5 \times 0.30)$ $P(E) = 0.14 + 0.15 = 0.29$

Step 4: Final Probability Computation

$P(A_1|E) = \frac{P(A_1)P(E|A_1)}{P(E)}$ $P(A_1|E) = \frac{0.5 \times 0.28}{0.29}$ $P(A_1|E) = \frac{0.14}{0.29} = \frac{14}{29}$

Visual Representation of Probability Distribution

Meditation Drug 0.28 0.30

Final Solution: The probability that the patient followed a course of meditation and yoga is $\frac{14}{29} \approx 0.4827$.

Solution:

Step 1: Defining Events and Prior Probabilities

Let $E$ be the event that the marble drawn is red. Let $A, B, C,$ and $D$ be the events of selecting boxes A, B, C, and D, respectively. Since there are four boxes and one is selected at random:

$P(A) = P(B) = P(C) = P(D) = \frac{1}{4}$ [By the principle of equal likelihood]

Step 2: Conditional Probabilities of Drawing a Red Marble

Based on the provided distribution (A: 1 Red, 6 White; B: 2 Red, 2 White; C: 3 Red, 1 White; D: 4 Red, 0 White), we calculate the probability of drawing a red marble given a specific box selection:

  • $P(E|A) = \frac{1}{1+6} = \frac{1}{7}$
  • $P(E|B) = \frac{2}{2+2} = \frac{2}{4} = \frac{1}{2}$
  • $P(E|C) = \frac{3}{3+1} = \frac{3}{4}$
  • $P(E|D) = \frac{4}{4+0} = \frac{4}{4} = 1$

Step 3: Calculating Total Probability $P(E)$

Per the Law of Total Probability: $P(E) = P(A)P(E|A) + P(B)P(E|B) + P(C)P(E|C) + P(D)P(E|D)$

$P(E) = \left( \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{1}{7} \right) + \left( \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{1}{2} \right) + \left( \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{3}{4} \right) + \left( \frac{1}{4} \times 1 \right)$

$P(E) = \frac{1}{4} \left( \frac{1}{7} + \frac{1}{2} + \frac{3}{4} + 1 \right) = \frac{1}{4} \left( \frac{8 + 28 + 42 + 56}{56} \right) = \frac{1}{4} \left( \frac{134}{56} \right) = \frac{67}{112}$

Step 4: Applying Bayes' Theorem

To find the probability that the marble was drawn from a specific box given it is red, we use: $P(X|E) = \frac{P(X)P(E|X)}{P(E)}$ where $X \in \{A, B, C, D\}$.

Box ($X$) Calculation ($P(X)P(E|X) / P(E)$) Result
A $(\frac{1}{4} \times \frac{1}{7}) / \frac{67}{112} = \frac{1}{28} \times \frac{112}{67}$ $\frac{4}{67}$
B $(\frac{1}{4} \times \frac{1}{2}) / \frac{67}{112} = \frac{1}{8} \times \frac{112}{67}$ $\frac{14}{67}$
C $(\frac{1}{4} \times \frac{3}{4}) / \frac{67}{112} = \frac{3}{16} \times \frac{112}{67}$ $\frac{21}{67}$
D $(\frac{1}{4} \times 1) / \frac{67}{112} = \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{112}{67}$ $\frac{28}{67}$
Box Selection (P=0.25 each) A(1/7) B(1/2) C(3/4) D(1)

Final Solution: The probabilities that the red marble was drawn from boxes A, B, C, and D are $\frac{4}{67}, \frac{14}{67}, \frac{21}{67},$ and $\frac{28}{67}$ respectively.

Solution:

Step 1: Identifying the Conditional Probability Formula

The conditional probability of an event $B$ occurring given that event $A$ has already occurred is defined by the multiplication rule of probability:

$P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}$

[Per the definition of conditional probability for any two events $A$ and $B$ where $P(A) \neq 0$]

Step 2: Analyzing the Given Condition

The problem states that $A \cap B = \phi$, where $\phi$ denotes the empty set (or null event). In probability theory, the probability of an impossible or empty event is defined as:

$P(A \cap B) = P(\phi) = 0$

[By the Axiom of Probability, the measure of the empty set in the sample space $S$ is zero]

Step 3: Calculating $P(B|A)$

Substitute the value obtained in Step 2 into the formula established in Step 1:

$P(B|A) = \frac{0}{P(A)}$

Since the problem provides the constraint $P(A) \neq 0$, the expression is well-defined and evaluates as follows:

$P(B|A) = 0$

Visual Representation of Mutually Exclusive Events

Sample Space (S) A B A ∩ B = φ (Mutually Exclusive)

Final Solution: $P(B|A) = 0$

Solution:

Step 1: Definition of Events and Initial Probabilities

Let the events be defined as follows:

  • $E_1$: The ball transferred from Bag I to Bag II is red.
  • $E_2$: The ball transferred from Bag I to Bag II is black.
  • $A$: The ball drawn from Bag II is red.

Bag I contains 3 red balls and 4 black balls (Total = 7 balls).
Bag II contains 4 red balls and 5 black balls (Total = 9 balls).

Probabilities of transferring balls from Bag I:

  • $P(E_1) = \frac{3}{7}$
  • $P(E_2) = \frac{4}{7}$

Step 2: Conditional Probabilities of Drawing a Red Ball

If $E_1$ occurs, Bag II receives a red ball. The composition of Bag II becomes (4+1) red and 5 black (Total = 10 balls).
$P(A|E_1) = \frac{5}{10} = \frac{1}{2}$

If $E_2$ occurs, Bag II receives a black ball. The composition of Bag II becomes 4 red and (5+1) black (Total = 10 balls).
$P(A|E_2) = \frac{4}{10} = \frac{2}{5}$

Bag I (7 balls) Transfer Red ($E_1$): P=3/7 Transfer Black ($E_2$): P=4/7 P(A|E1) = 5/10 P(A|E2) = 4/10

Step 3: Application of Bayes' Theorem

We are required to find the probability that the transferred ball was black, given that the drawn ball is red, i.e., $P(E_2|A)$.

Per Bayes' Theorem [Theorems of Total Probability and Bayes' Rule]:

$P(E_2|A) = \frac{P(E_2) \cdot P(A|E_2)}{P(E_1) \cdot P(A|E_1) + P(E_2) \cdot P(A|E_2)}$

Step 4: Algebraic Computation

Substitute the established values into the formula:

$P(E_2|A) = \frac{\frac{4}{7} \cdot \frac{4}{10}}{\left(\frac{3}{7} \cdot \frac{5}{10}\right) + \left(\frac{4}{7} \cdot \frac{4}{10}\right)}$

$P(E_2|A) = \frac{\frac{16}{70}}{\frac{15}{70} + \frac{16}{70}}$

$P(E_2|A) = \frac{\frac{16}{70}}{\frac{31}{70}}$

$P(E_2|A) = \frac{16}{31}$

Final Solution: The probability that the transferred ball is black is $\frac{16}{31}$.

Solution:

Step 1: Analyzing the Timeframe of a Leap Year

A standard year consists of $365$ days, whereas a leap year consists of $366$ days [Per the Gregorian calendar definition].

We convert the total number of days into weeks:

$366 \text{ days} = 52 \text{ weeks} + 2 \text{ days}$

This implies that every leap year is guaranteed to have $52$ Tuesdays, as $52 \times 7 = 364$ days cover $52$ full cycles of the week.

Step 2: Determining the Sample Space of Remaining Days

The remaining $2$ days (the $365^{th}$ and $366^{th}$ days) can be any two consecutive days of the week. We denote the sample space $S$ as follows:

  • $S = \{(\text{Sunday, Monday}), (\text{Monday, Tuesday}), (\text{Tuesday, Wednesday}), (\text{Wednesday, Thursday}), (\text{Thursday, Friday}), (\text{Friday, Saturday}), (\text{Saturday, Sunday})\}$

The total number of outcomes is $n(S) = 7$.

Step 3: Defining the Favorable Event

For the year to contain exactly $53$ Tuesdays, one of the two remaining days must be a Tuesday. Let $E$ be the event of selecting such a pair:

  • $E = \{(\text{Monday, Tuesday}), (\text{Tuesday, Wednesday})\}$

The number of favorable outcomes is $n(E) = 2$.

Step 4: Calculation of Probability

Using the Classical Definition of Probability [Probability $P(E) = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)}$]:

$P(E) = \frac{2}{7}$

Visual Representation of Sample Space

Sample Space of 2 Remaining Days 1. (Sun, Mon) 2. (Mon, Tue) - Favorable 3. (Tue, Wed) - Favorable 4. (Wed, Thu) 5. (Thu, Fri) 6. (Fri, Sat) 7. (Sat, Sun)

Final Solution: The probability that a leap year contains 53 Tuesdays is $\frac{2}{7}$.

Solution:

Step 1: Identifying the Distribution Model

The problem involves a fixed number of independent Bernoulli trials, where each trial (selecting a person) has two possible outcomes: right-handed (success) or not right-handed (failure). Since the probability of success is constant, we apply the Binomial Distribution formula:

$P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k q^{n-k}$

Where:

  • $n = 10$ (Total number of people in the sample)
  • $p = 0.9$ (Probability that a person is right-handed)
  • $q = 1 - p = 0.1$ (Probability that a person is not right-handed)
  • $X$ is the random variable representing the number of right-handed people.

Step 2: Defining the Target Probability

We are required to find the probability that at most 6 people are right-handed. This is expressed as:

$P(X \leq 6) = \sum_{k=0}^{6} \binom{10}{k} (0.9)^k (0.1)^{10-k}$

Due to the law of total probability, it is computationally more efficient to calculate the complement and subtract from 1:

$P(X \leq 6) = 1 - [P(X=7) + P(X=8) + P(X=9) + P(X=10)]$

Step 3: Calculating Individual Probabilities

We compute each term $P(X=k) = \binom{10}{k} (0.9)^k (0.1)^{10-k}$:

$k$ Calculation: $\binom{10}{k} (0.9)^k (0.1)^{10-k}$ Value
$7$ $\frac{10!}{7!3!} (0.9)^7 (0.1)^3 = 120 \times 0.4782969 \times 0.001$ $0.0573956$
$8$ $\frac{10!}{8!2!} (0.9)^8 (0.1)^2 = 45 \times 0.4304672 \times 0.01$ $0.1937102$
$9$ $\frac{10!}{9!1!} (0.9)^9 (0.1)^1 = 10 \times 0.3874205 \times 0.1$ $0.3874205$
$10$ $\frac{10!}{10!0!} (0.9)^{10} (0.1)^0 = 1 \times 0.3486784 \times 1$ $0.3486784$

Step 4: Final Summation and Subtraction

Summing the probabilities for $k > 6$:

$\sum_{k=7}^{10} P(X=k) = 0.0573956 + 0.1937102 + 0.3874205 + 0.3486784 = 0.9872047$

Subtracting from total probability [Per the Complement Rule]:

$P(X \leq 6) = 1 - 0.9872047 = 0.0127953$

Visual Representation of Distribution

0 10 Right-handed sample count (k)

Final Solution: The probability that at most 6 people are right-handed is approximately 0.0128.

Solution:

Step 1: Establishing the Sample Space

A second-order determinant is represented as:

$D = \begin{vmatrix} a_{11} & a_{12} \\ a_{21} & a_{22} \end{vmatrix} = a_{11}a_{22} - a_{12}a_{21}$

Each entry $a_{ij}$ can take a value from the set $\{0, 1\}$. Since there are 4 positions and each position has 2 possible values, the total number of possible determinants is $2^4 = 16$. [Per the Fundamental Counting Principle].

Step 2: Defining the Condition for a Positive Determinant

We require the value of the determinant $D > 0$. Given the expression $D = a_{11}a_{22} - a_{12}a_{21}$, the condition $D > 0$ implies:

$a_{11}a_{22} - a_{12}a_{21} > 0 \implies a_{11}a_{22} > a_{12}a_{21}$

Step 3: Systematic Case Analysis

Since the entries are restricted to $\{0, 1\}$, the products $a_{11}a_{22}$ and $a_{12}a_{21}$ can only take values $0$ or $1$. For the inequality $a_{11}a_{22} > a_{12}a_{21}$ to hold, the only possibility is:

  • $a_{11}a_{22} = 1$
  • $a_{12}a_{21} = 0$

Step 4: Counting Favorable Outcomes

We analyze the two conditions independently:

Condition 1: $a_{11}a_{22} = 1$
This occurs only if $a_{11} = 1$ AND $a_{22} = 1$. There is $1$ way to satisfy this.

Condition 2: $a_{12}a_{21} = 0$
This occurs if $a_{12} = 0, a_{21} = 0$; OR $a_{12} = 0, a_{21} = 1$; OR $a_{12} = 1, a_{21} = 0$. There are $3$ ways to satisfy this.

By the Multiplication Rule for independent events, the total number of favorable outcomes is $1 \times 3 = 3$.

1 0 0 1 Determinant = (1)(1) - (0)(0) = 1 (Positive)

Step 5: Calculating Probability

The probability $P(E)$ is defined as the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total number of elements in the sample space. [By the Classical Definition of Probability].

$P(D > 0) = \frac{\text{Favorable Outcomes}}{\text{Total Outcomes}} = \frac{3}{16}$

Final Solution: The probability that the value of the determinant is positive is $\frac{3}{16}$.

Solution:

Step 1: Formal Definition of Conditional Probability

The conditional probability of an event $B$, given that event $A$ has occurred, is defined as:

$P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}$

[Per the definition of Conditional Probability provided in the axiomatic framework of probability theory, where $P(A) > 0$.]

Step 2: Analysis of the Given Condition

The problem states that $A$ is a subset of $B$ ($A \subseteq B$). By the set-theoretic definition of a subset, if every element of set $A$ is also an element of set $B$, then the intersection of $A$ and $B$ is equal to set $A$ itself.

$A \cap B = A$

[By the property of set intersection: if $A \subseteq B$, then $A \cap B = A$.]

Step 3: Derivation of the Probability Measure

Applying the result from Step 2 to the probability of the intersection:

$P(A \cap B) = P(A)$

Step 4: Substitution into the Conditional Probability Formula

Substitute $P(A \cap B) = P(A)$ into the expression derived in Step 1:

$P(B|A) = \frac{P(A)}{P(A)}$

Step 5: Simplification

Since it is given that $P(A) \neq 0$, the ratio $\frac{P(A)}{P(A)}$ simplifies to unity:

$P(B|A) = 1$

Visual Representation of Subset Inclusion

S B A

The Venn diagram illustrates that all outcomes within region $A$ are strictly contained within region $B$. Consequently, if event $A$ is known to have occurred, it is certain that event $B$ has also occurred.

Final Solution: $P(B|A) = 1$

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